Leaderboard / Changelly / UMA
Changelly’s UMA predictions
Every UMA prediction from Changelly that reached its target date, graded against the actual market price. Evidence was archived before the outcome was known.
21
Graded predictions
3.5%
Avg. error
16 / 21
Direction hits
Predicted vs. actual over time
Line = actual UMA price at each target date · circle = what Changelly predicted for that date
Graded UMA predictions
| Made on | Target | Predicted | Actual | Error | Dir. | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-01 | $0.337 | $0.3492 | 3.5% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-30 | 2026-08-01 | $0.349 | $0.3492 | 0.1% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-01 | $0.368 | $0.3492 | 5.4% | ✕ | source |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-01 | $0.342 | $0.3492 | 2.1% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-27 | 2026-08-01 | $0.339 | $0.3492 | 2.9% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-26 | 2026-08-01 | $0.333 | $0.3492 | 4.6% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-30 | 2026-07-31 | $0.348 | $0.3361 | 3.5% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-29 | 2026-07-31 | $0.367 | $0.3361 | 9.2% | ✕ | source |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-07-31 | $0.346 | $0.3361 | 3.0% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-27 | 2026-07-31 | $0.343 | $0.3361 | 2.1% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-26 | 2026-07-31 | $0.333 | $0.3361 | 0.9% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-29 | 2026-07-30 | $0.366 | $0.3358 | 9.0% | ✕ | source |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-07-30 | $0.35 | $0.3358 | 4.2% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-27 | 2026-07-30 | $0.347 | $0.3358 | 3.3% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-26 | 2026-07-30 | $0.337 | $0.3358 | 0.4% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-07-29 | $0.354 | $0.3503 | 1.1% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-27 | 2026-07-29 | $0.351 | $0.3503 | 0.2% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-26 | 2026-07-29 | $0.341 | $0.3503 | 2.6% | ✓ | source |
| 2026-07-27 | 2026-07-28 | $0.355 | $0.3736 | 5.0% | ✕ | source |
| 2026-07-26 | 2026-07-28 | $0.345 | $0.3736 | 7.6% | ✕ | source |
| 2026-07-26 | 2026-07-27 | $0.349 | $0.3602 | 3.1% | ✓ | source |