How accurate are Changelly's UMA predictions? | CompareForecast

Changelly’s UMA predictions

Every UMA prediction from Changelly that reached its target date, graded against the actual market price. Evidence was archived before the outcome was known.

500

Graded predictions

5.5%

Avg. error

290 / 500

Direction hits

Predicted vs. actual over time

Line = actual UMA price at each target date · circle = what Changelly predicted for that date

Graded UMA predictions

Made on	Target	Predicted	Actual	Error	Dir.	Evidence
2026-08-03	2026-08-26	$0.337	$0.3711	9.2%	✕	source
2026-08-02	2026-08-26	$0.336	$0.3711	9.5%	✕	source
2026-08-01	2026-08-26	$0.319	$0.3711	14.0%	✕	source